Nfl betting picks over under

That ‘certain number’ is the NFL over under or total. Much like the point spread, oddsmakers set the total and invite you bet over or under. For example, if the Giants vs Cowboys game has an over under value of 45.5 and the final score is 30-17, then OVER bettors win (because 30+17 = 47 which is greater than 45.5). View Against the Spread, Over/Under and Moneyline picks from 150+ experts for all of week 21 NFL games. See which side the 'Expert Consensus' is betting. . VI Expert leaning to Bucs-Under. Total Analysis and Parlay Breakdown Super Bowl 55 Betting Update SB 55 Penalty Breakdown BetMGM Super Bowl Bonus FOX BET SB55 Bonus Promo Super Bowl 55 MVP Best Bets Hot & Not Report - Bucs vs. Chiefs Super Bowl 55 Betting Angles Westgate SuperBook SB55 Props William Hill Super Bowl 55 Props Super Bowl.

OVER/UNDER betting is just like any other bet where you are looking at the final score, whether the game ends in regulation or multiple overtimes. Although it’s often said that NFL overtime is an UNDER bettor’s worst enemy but an OVER bettor’s best friend, it’s important to remember that both teams get the chance to touch the ball.

Are you the type of gambler who bets the over/under each week during the 17-week NFL season? Well then, this article will help you increase your chances to win the over/under bet every week!

While there isn’t a single strategy out there that guarantees a win for the over/under, you can consider a few significant factors that can at least help tilt the odds in your direction.

Each is a factor you can review before placing a bet.

So, if you bet the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders to cover the over/under threshold, but Patrick Mahomes gets hurt and is ruled out for the rest of the game, you obviously can’t help it if the Chiefs’ offense stagnates.

This isn’t what this article is about. Instead, it covers five factors that can help you maximize your odds to win your over/under wager at the NFL betting sites. Read on to discover more.

1. Who’s Playing?

Okay, so first off, take a look at the over/under for the week and consider who is playing and whether they have a shot to cover the over/under.

Let’s look at what happened during Week 1 of the NFL 2020 season and why a couple of games turned out the way they did.

Good examples are the Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons and the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Giants.

  • The Hawks and Falcons had an over/under of 49.
  • And the Steelers and Giants had an over/under of 47.4.

These two matchups tell us a lot, considering you had two stellar offenses going head to head with the Falcons and Seahawks. These were offenses that scored 23.8 and 25.1 points, respectively, per game in 2019. Their defenses also allowed roughly 24.9 points per game.

Chances are with such high-powered offenses, the Seahawks and Falcons would easily cover the over/under. The score ended up being 38-25.

Betting over under wins nfl

The opposite was said about the Steelers and Giants. While the Steelers have the potential for a hot offense, they scored just 26 points in Ben Roethlisberger’s return.

Predictably, they had to work out a few kinks in Ben’s game and the running game.

But the Steelers boast a fantastic defense against a meager Giants’ offense that’s learning a new system.

Chances are, the Giants would have a hard time “helping” the Steelers cover the over/under of 47.5. The total number of points scored between the two teams sat at 42. It was close, but not as close as the final score indicated, considering garbage time allowed for a closer result.

But the Steelers’ defense, like others in Week 1, was too good for the opposing offense. The Giants’ offensive line was young, inexperienced, and often overwhelmed by Pittsburgh’s blitz packages. Quarterback Daniel Jones is still working on his game, and no one from the Giants’ skill units were 100% healthy in 2019.

One big surprise in Week 1 came in the New England vs. Miami game, where I believed the teams could cover the over/under of 43 points. They finished 10 points shy.

I forgot something I shouldn’t have, and neither should you: the Patriot Way. The New England defense was so decimated by free agency and opt-outs that I was certain they’d at least struggle in Week 1. But head coach Bill Belichick had his Pats prepared.

They ravaged quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick for 3 interceptions and held the Dolphins to just 11 points, while the Cam Newton-led offense scored enough to beat Miami by 10. That said, always assume a strength from the previous season carries into next year until it’s proven otherwise, just as Belichick and the Patriots showed us.

2. Scoring Offenses

The perfect game to point to here was the one that opened up the season: the Kansas City Chiefs vs. the Houston Texans. You saw two high-scoring offenses going at it. And while it was a blowout over the first three quarters of the game, the Texans barely scored enough to cover the over/under.

One can make the argument that it was Harrison Butker and the Chiefs’ prompt special teams play that really covered the over/under in this one.

Either way, you knew both offenses would score in this one, even if Houston’s scores didn’t arrive until garbage time. Deshaun Watson and company are just too talented to lay an egg.

Let’s look at another defensive game that finished under, one that featured two offenses with spotty quarterback play in the Los Angeles Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals. As we expected, it was an ugly contest, even in light of the Chargers owning the league’s prettiest uniforms.

With that said, every NFL fan knew this was going to feature barely any offense and was bound to finish under its 44-point over/under projection. The end result featured just 29 points of scoring.

While both the Chargers and Bengals will feature strong offenses at some point in 2020, it wasn’t happening in Week 1.

Not with a lack of off-season prep, preseason, and a truncated training camp coupled with new quarterbacks in Tyrod Taylor and Joe Burrow.

You were bound to be treated to a game that featured little to no scoring and a lot of offensive miscues. So, look at the over/under and the strength of the opposing offenses. Does it look like a good match to ace the over, or are they more likely to finish several points under?

3. Total Offenses

Over Under Betting Strategy Nfl

Like points scored, nothing is a better indicator of how many points a team is likely to score without its total offense number. Of course, this number can be misleading, as was the case of the 2019 Oakland Raiders.

In 2019, the Raiders ranked 11th in total offense but scored a meager 19.6 points per game. But more often than not, total offense gives you an idea of what to expect two opponents to score. There are two numbers you should look at here. The first is the total offense of either the previous season or the current season, depending on how far into the current season we’re in. I like to start looking at current season totals in October.

The second number to look at, and one that many of us ignore, is total offense between two opponents over the previous or current season, if applicable. In AFC versus NFC matchups, you can ignore this. But this number is extremely important in interdivisional matchups.

Let’s look at the blowout of Week 1 which featured the Cleveland Browns vs. the Baltimore Ravens.

While the Browns put up a star-studded show against the Ravens in Baltimore in Week 4 of 2019, the teams headed in opposite directions since that showdown. Cleveland’s offense became more than anemic. Baltimore’s, well, the class of the league.

In other words, the Browns became the Browns, and the Ravens became the Ravens. In the second matchup of 2019, the discrepancy sat in full display as Lamar Jackson became one of the faces of the league while Cleveland became the same old Browns in a 31-15 blowout and the Browns’ offense never got going.

Fast-forward to 2020 and you know the discrepancy in total offense between the two teams. Most of us were expecting the teams to barely grace the over. I actually projected Baltimore to win this thing 38-13, so yeah, a garbage-time score by the Browns was expected, which would have graded the 48.5-point over/under.

But we also knew the Browns’ offense had a hard time moving the ball at multiple points during the 2019 season, including against Baltimore in Week 16 when the teams combined for 46 points. It came as no surprise to see the Ravens stuff the Browns’ offense while lighting up the scoreboard yet again en route to their 38-6 win. And for the team that finished second in total offense and first in scoring, the result was obvious.

Unless you were a Browns fan living in fantasy land, you and everyone else knew what was coming, especially against a team that was among the league’s worst in total offense in 2019.

4. Strengths of Opposing Defenses

A great example here comprised the Denver Broncos and Tennessee Titans. Both teams featured excellent defenses and it showed.

Under

While the over/under would’ve been threatened (as I projected) had it not been for Stephen Gostkowski leaving 10 points on the field, this over/under was a low 41 points on September 9th.

This definitely meant to expect a low-scoring affair and it didn’t disappoint, with the 16-14 finish when Gostkowski converted his last field goal attempt of the evening.

When two solid defenses go head to head like what you saw with Denver and Tennessee, the under is almost a given unless, of course, the line looks to be favorable as it was in the Broncos-Titans game with such a low threshold.

Over

Either way, in games featuring two defensive powerhouses, the key is to almost always bet the under.

5. Trash Is Treasure or Fool’s Gold

This one can often lead a sure under to a game that will finish with covering the over. And look no further than the Bills-Jets game, which sat at a projected 39.5-point over/under heading into Week 1.

However, once the Bills built their comfortable 27-10 lead, the Jets stormed back in garbage time to make the game a respectable 27-17. And this is a trap for many of us. Plus, it’s hit or miss.

Remember the Browns-Ravens game we talked about earlier? The Chiefs-Texans?

The key point here is the fact that garbage time can always make or break a game, and it’s all about whether you think a team will build enough of a lead to back off and allow the other team to score.

But it also comes down to how strong the opposing offense is. Both the Browns and Jets feature among the league’s worst offenses.

And you knew both games were going to come down to garbage time.

Betting Over Under Nfl

So, before you place any bet on the over/under, think for a second whether garbage time will affect the outcome. If you do, betting the over is a safer bet. If not, bet the under.

Of course, you can’t guarantee a win. And hardly any of us saw the Jets marching 86 yards down the field and acing the over with 54 seconds left in the game. We also thought, bad as the Browns are, their offense would at least show a pulse greater than 6 points.

Nfl Over Under Betting Odds

Go with your instinct here. Some weeks, you’ll win. Some weeks, you’ll lose. But always remember that in any projected blowout, garbage time can affect the outcome and your bet.

Oh, I can guarantee this—it’ll keep you on the edge of your seat.

Conclusion

Over Under Nfl Games

The unfortunate truth about the over/under is that it’s far less predictable than the spread.

Nfl Over And Under Line

I’m personally much better with projecting the spread than the over/under considering the complexity of the factors involved here.

You especially need to be worried about that final point and how time will always make or break the spread.

Yes, how the teams match up in terms of offense and defense are a huge help, as well as their history playing against one another. But the primary factor in this one rests with how time will affect the outcome.

What are some factors you consider when betting the over/under at online sportsbooks? Tell us in the comments.

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